Bears Brain Trust

Bears fans: Vote Rule 8, Section 1, Article 4

Mon, 13 Sep 2010 11:24:04 GMT

Here are the two best takes on the ruling that I’ve seen so far — one that agreed with the call (and the rule) and another that disagreed with the call (and the rule).

The one agreeing with the ruling on the field is former Vice President of Officiating Mike Pereira of Fox Sports. He was also on the Fox broadcast after the play happened, but in this video he has more of an opportunity to explain himself.

On the broadcast, the former VP said a player has to maintain control of the ball through the process of making a catch; in the video he said until the play is over. But what is the process of making a catch? And when is the play over?

Plus, the rule book doesn’t specifically say either of those things.

Jason Lisk at The Big Lead breaks down the play citing the rulebook. Rule 8, Section 1, Article 4, Item 1 says:

“Item 1: Player Going to the Ground. If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent), he must maintain control of the ball after he touches the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, the pass is incomplete. If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, the pass is complete.”

What is touching the ground? Does two feet, a hand and a butt not count because Johnson rotated his body when he hit the ground?

Whether you agree with Pereira or Lisk on this particular call, I think we all can agree that the league could use a less ambigous definition of hitting the ground.

Spicer waived; Williams signed

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 03:42:22 GMT

Another day and another banged up marginal player cut to bring in another marginal player. Yesterday, it was Mike Teel; today, it was Averell Spicer.

Via ESPN Chicago:

"The Bears announced on Monday the signing of defensive tackle Mick Williams to a two-year contract, while in other moves, the club waived injured defensive tackle Averell Spicer."

I can't find the exact date for when the rosters have to be trimmed down. But I think Williams knows when that day is.

It's hard to see Williams making it past it. He's just a body to use since Spicer has been bothered by a knee injury.

Training Camp Tidbits: August 9

Mon, 9 Aug 2010 11:55:01 GMT

Only personnel change on the line could come at RG, not LG

The brain trust is trying to convince us that the offensive line will be better because Mike Tice is coaching , Chris Williams and Frank Omiyale are returning to the position they are most comfortable with and Olin Kreutz is healthy. No personnel changes, though, except for at left guard. Or is it right guard?

Reports now say that Lance Louis has become the favorite for Roberto Garza's old position. But Garza isn't done. He'll just move to left guard. Still, only one personnel change. [Chicago Tribune]

Time for everyone to love Juaquin Iglesias

Juaquin Iglesias and Major Wright both returned to practice on Sunday night; however, no one told me Sunday/Monday was the day for Iglesias love. Every Bear has a day, especially if he's a newly acquired free agent or a draft pick still trying to find himself, when he is fawned over. Now, after returning from injury and apparently having a decent practice, it's Iglesias' turn.

And he showed Lovie Smith something:

"We keep telling players if you keep working hard, eventually you’re going to get a chance to prove what you can do,” Smith said. “Juaquin coming back from an injury showed up tonight, and that’s what you need to do."

Unfortunately for Iglesias he plays a position (/eye roll) "stocked with promising young players." [Chicago Bears website]

Some still hurt

Devin Hester missed practice again. Out on Sunday, and only Sunday, Mark Anderson, Danieal Manning, Earl Bennett and Josh Bullocks. [Chicago Sun-Times]

Bears make minor move

Mike Teel hasn't been healthy, so he had to go. In his place, not a veteran quarterback, but Zeke Markshausen. [Bears Brain Trust]

Teel out; Markshausen enters the fold

Mon, 9 Aug 2010 01:46:45 GMT

Via Michael C. Wright at ESPN Chicago:

"The Bears announced the signing of former Northwestern receiver Zeke Markshausen on Sunday, in addition to the release of quarterback Mike Teel."

Two thoughts on this move: Markshausen was with the Bears in minicamp; they've seen what they can do. Unless the 5-11, 185 pound receiver got bigger or faster, I'd be shocked if the Bears make a 180 and Markshausen makes the roster.

Secondly, I spent way too much time thinking about Mike Teel when the Bears signed him. When it happened I thought it was odd. And I still think it was odd. Still, the Teel move should have entered and exited my mind in the same moment.

Training Camp Tidbits: August 4

Wed, 4 Aug 2010 01:24:33 GMT

Tuesday was Day 5 and practice No. 6. Now for some links and tidbits:

Injured List:

Brian Iwuh was carted off the field with a knee injury. Other players who did not practice: Chris Harris, Major Wright, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Juaquin Iglesias and Marcus Harrison. [Chicago Tribune]

Thoughts and Tidbits:

Brett Favre says he's going to retire; the Bears will believe it when they see it. [Chicago Tribune]

Ah, the offensive line. Sean Jensen says Jay Cutler had a pretty good day -- in 7-on7 drills. Add the lines, and Cutler showed some frustrations. Maybe the Bears' defensive line is just that great. [Chicago Sun-Times]

Caleb Hanie is developing just fine, thank you very much. [Chicago Tribune]

Last season, I agreed with this kind of article: there were a lot of reasons for Cutler's picks. But how sick did you get of reading them? [ESPN Chicago]

Training Camp Tidbits: August 3

Tue, 3 Aug 2010 12:38:10 GMT

Monday was Day 4 and practice No. 5. Now for some links and tidbits:

Injured List:

It's never too early to have two injured safeties. Major Wright joined Chris Harris on that list; Wright injured his groin muscle. [ESPN Chicago]

Marcus Harrison left practice early for the second straight day. Just "a little dehydrated," said Love Smith. [Chicago Tribune]

Thoughts and Tidbits:

This was co-written by Brad Biggs and Dan Pompei. Pompei definitely wrote the first sentence. The battle for the third running back spot can never be one of the best in camp. [Chicago Tribune]

Windy City Gridiron wants to know why you're optimistic about the Bears. [Windy City Gridiron]

From practice yesterday: Jensen likes James Marten and Mark Anderson. As for Frank Omiyale, not so much. [Chicago Sun-Times]

Interviews:

Jerry Angelo speaks. [Mully & Hanley]

Strongside Linebacker: Is this the best the Bears could do?

Tue, 3 Aug 2010 01:54:25 GMT

Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed -- and if they should have done anything differently.

__________

Still here:

Hunter Hillenmeyer: Played in 14 games (started in 13) at both strongside linebacker and middle linebacker; made 65 tackles; had 2.5 sacks and one interception.

Nick Roach: Played in 16 games (started in 15) at both strongside linebacker and middle linebacker; made 50 tackles; had two sacks.

Out:

Jamar Williams: Played in 16 games (started in three); was the primary back-up at both outside linebacker positions.

2009 review: Eh, but it wasn’t entirely their fault.

The Bears' linebacker depth is on the outside -- entirely on the outside.

So when Brian Urlacher went down, the Bears robbed from the strongside to fill the hole. Neither Roach or Hillenmeyer are great Cover-2 middle linebackers. Hillenmeyer struggled with the covering of the deep middle; Roach struggled with setting up the defense.

Both went in and out of the middle, and whoever was left on the strongside struggled at times, as well. Neither is a particularly great starter, and the rest of the defense didn't put them in a particularly great situation.

The Bears blitzed 6+ guys more than all but two teams in the league; they were tenth in the league in the number of zone blitz. It's fair to say the Bears’ linebackers blitzed a fair number of times. The problem is neither of them are particularly good at it.

Of the three starting backers, the Bears would have liked to spend time hiding Roach and/or Hillenmeyer, letting the others make a majority of the plays. Last season, the situation didn’t lend itself to that.

2010 offseason plan: Do less than nothing.

I was ahead of myself when I said the Bears did nothing at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. At those positions, the Bears are at least hoping the Tommie Harris and Urlacher are healthy and good this season. Here the Bears don’t even have aren't even hoping for anything.

The traded Jamar Williams to the Panthers. It cut some of their depth at outside linebacker, but they got help at safety.

At strongside linebacker, the Bears are just hoping Urlacher doesn’t get hurt, forcing one of these two to move to middle linebacker. We all saw how that turned out last season. On the strongside, both are serviceable if nothing else.

Execution: Urlacher is still healthy, right?

They're going to re-try the 2009 plan: hide these two serviceable players at position with Urlacher and Lance Briggs.

If this season blows up, strongside linebacker isn’t going to be the reason. This is far from the Bears’ biggest problem.

Training Camp Tidbits: August 2

Mon, 2 Aug 2010 10:52:28 GMT

Sunday was day 3, practice No. 4 and the second day the Bears were in full pads. Now, for some links and tidbits:

Injured List

Harvey Unga (hamstring) and Juaquin Iglesias (groin) left practice early. [Chicago Breaking Sports]

The Sun-Times says that Marcus Harrison didn't finish practice either. [Chicago Sun-Times]

Chris Harris sat out again, too. And if ESPN (or anyone else) continues to not put "C." in front of Harris on their headlines when he misses practice, I am going to go insane. [ESPN Chicago]

Brian Urlacher and Olin Kreutz returned to the field on Sunday, after missing the second practice on Saturday. Midway Illustrated does not approve. Personally, I don't think Urlacher or Kreutz missing a couple of practices -- when they're not injured -- is a big deal. [Midway Illustrated]

Thoughts and Tidbits:

Midway Illustrated wants competition; Jeff Dickerson says there could be competition at defensive end. He doesn't quote a coach or anyone who says Corey Wootton is playing well enough to be considered, but he and Corey think Corey is. [ESPN Chicago]

The Bears are remembering their storied past. They have to go back a few decades to get there. [ChicagoBears.com]

Whoever in the Bears organization gets coaches and the front office to lie or avoid sensitive subjects has failed to reach Mike Tice. [ChicagoBears.com]

Are you sick of Devin Hester is a No. 1 receiver articles and columns yet? You're not? You're a better man than I. [Daily Herald]

We'll see what Isaac Bruce has to say about it on Wednesday. [ChicagoBears.com]

Middle Linebacker: Is this the best the Bears could do?

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 01:54:00 GMT

Brian Urlacher, injured in the first half of week one; missed the rest of the season
Tim Shaw, special teams player who has found himself a place in Bears lore because of one excellent game
Kevin Malast, finished last season on the Bears practice squad

In:

Matt Mayberry, undrafted free agent

It's Urlacher or a outside linebacker sub. We all saw what that looks like last season.

2009 review: Things were OK for about two quarters

Brian Urlacher injured his right wrist in the first quarter of the first game last season. He played with the injury in the second quarter; the next day he had surgery; and that was the end of that. The Bears spent the rest of the 2009 season scrambling to find someone both physically and mentally capable of stepping in at middle linebacker.

The next-most experienced middle linebacker on the Bears roster, Hunter Hillenmeyer, took over for a couple weeks. Let's just say he struggled.

Hillenmeyer was responsible for the deep middle -- the middle linebacker’s main responsibility in the Tampa 2 -- but he lacked the Urlacher-like athletic ability to do it. It wasn't long before he was replaced by a more athletic option.

The better athlete was Nick Roach. But in his starts, he struggled to make the proper checks, and otherwise be the “quarterback” of the defense. So the Bears had no other choice but to go back to Hillenmeyer. But like I said, he struggled.

2010 offseason plan: Brian, how’s your wrist?

The Bears’ plan at middle linebacker is a less risky version of the plan at defensive tackle. When healthy and playing well, Urlacher and Tommie Harris are (maybe "were" is a better word) among the best at their position. They both also make a ton of money. They make enough money that it would be ridiculous to spend money in free agency in order to acquire an expensive insurance plan.

The difference between Harris and Urlacher is that Urlacher has been a better player in recent years.

So while it looks like the Bears' plan was was to ignore the position in the draft and free agency, at least there is some reason to be optimistic about Urlacher. It hasn't been as many years since Urlacher was a good starter.

Execution: It’s pretty easy to do nothing

These were/are the top middle linebackers available in the offseason:

Karlos Dansby; signed with Dolphins; five years, $43 million
Derrick Johnson; re-signed with Chiefs; one year, $2.6 million
DeMeco Ryans; re-signed with Texans; six years, $48 million with $21.75 million guaranteed
Gary Brackett; re-signed with Colts; five years, $33 million with $12 million signing bonus
Keith Bullock, signed with the Giants; one year, $1.105 million

Different year, different situation, maybe the Bears are interested in signing a young player like Karlos Dansby or DeMeco Ryans.

But similar to the defensive tackles: so much is already invested in Urlacher. A lot is invested in Urlacher; the Bears spent a lot on Julius Peppers to improve the defensive end position; and there are/were other holes to fill.

Instead, the Bears did nothing but hope for the best.

Bears are 13th richest sports franchise

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 01:10:54 GMT

In Forbes Magazines latest rankings, the Bears are listed as the 13th most valuable franchise in sports.

According to the rankings, the Bears are valued at $1.08 billion behind nine NFL teams, three soccer teams and the Yankees. The Bears also bring in a cool $241 million a year in revenue.

Thirteenth isn't bad; 9th among NFL teams isn't bad, either. But it still seems a little low. It is the Bears after all. And Chicago is the biggest unshared market in the NFL.

There must be something pushing the Bears towards the middle -- behind Tampa Bay.

I blame Soldier Field. There's a reason the Cowboys are No. 2.

Now who will Teel throw to?

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 03:54:58 GMT

Vic Hall, one of the receivers who surely would have gotten to work with new Bears quarterback Mike Teel, was released today. Oddly enough, he may have been released because of Teel.

Or was that Jimmy Saddler-McQueen?

Either way, both Hall and Saddler-McQueen are gone; Teel and Harvey Unga are in.

The two were cut to make room for Teel and Unga, who both signed contracts on Wednesday. Unga, a 2010 seventh-round supplemental draft selection, signed a four-year deal.

As for Teel, don't worry, there are still plenty of back-up, back-up wide receivers for Teel to work with during training camp. And unless there's a last minute deal, these wide receivers can be found on this list, along with the rest of the 80-man roster.

Someone has to throw the ball to Vic Hall

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 12:48:08 GMT

The Bergen Record first reported, and the Chicago Tribune has confirmed, that the Bears will sign quarterback Mike Teel. This will be the third team he has played for in two months. The former Seahawk and Patriot will be the fourth quarterback on the roster.

Training camp is long; they run a lot of plays during weeks of two-a-days; someone has to throw the ball to Vic Hall, Antonio Robinson, Eric Peterman and Freddie Barnes while the real quarterbacks are running the offense.

Apparently, there's also a connection between Teel and former Seahawks general manager, current Bears personnel director, Tim Ruskell. Per Brad Biggs:

"The move has the fingerprints of new personnel director Tim Ruskell on it. Ruskell was the general manager in Seattle when the Seahawks drafted Teel in the sixth round in 2009. Teel spent last season on the Seahawks' roster as the third quarterback but did not play."

I tell you, that Dan Pompei is a football savant. He told us that Ruskell was going to blow our minds with his experience and knowledge. I guess, I never though it would happen so quickly.

Defensive Tackle: Is this the best the Bears could do?

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 01:22:21 GMT

Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed -- and if they should have done anything differently.

__________

The top free agent tackles were quickly franchised by their own teams; the Bears didn't have a draft pick until the third round; plus, they had more than a few holes outside of DT to fill. On top of limited chances to get better on the inside of the defensive line, the Bears have already invested a lot of money in the position, mainly in Tommie Harris.

Hoping that Harris is a top DT again, probably isn't the most reliable plan; the Bears didn't have a lot of choices, though. Let's breakdown the Bears offseason at defensive tackle.

Still here:
Tommie Harris, 19 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 15 games
Jarron Gilbert, top draft pick of '09 played in only four games
Anthony Adams, 36 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 16 games
Marcus Harrison, 16 tackles and 1.0 sack in 16 games
Matt Toeaina, played in two games

Out:
Israel Idonije, Lovie Smith says he’d like to lock Idonije in more at DE than DT

In:
Jimmy Saddler-McQueen, undrafted free agent
Averell Spicer, undrafted free agent

It’s going to be the same cast in 2010. If Tommie Harris is healthy, can he be effective? Or, is he simply not that good anymore?

2009 review: Real bad

Perhaps more disappointing than the Bears’ defensive ends were the defensive tackles. Tommie Harris’ play continued to fall, and as whole, the unit failed to make a difference.

Most, if not all of the blame could be placed on Harris, who according to ProFootballFocus.com, graded out as one of the worst defensive tackles in football last season. According to their grading system, Harris ranked 75th among the 87 DTs that played at least 25% of their team’s snaps. Teammate Marcus Harrison was one of the 12 players worse than him.

Based on those grades, the one bright spot for the Bears’ defensive tackles was Israel Idonije; however, Lovie Smith would like to lock in at defensive end (a more natural position for Idonije) more than previous seasons.

2010 offseason plan: No way out

There’s too much money invested in Harris and too many other problems that prevented the Bears from doing anything crazy in free agency about the deficiency at defensive tackle.

Hopefully, because Harris didn’t need offseason surgery for the first time in a long time, he’ll be a little closer to the old, difference-making Harris. Otherwise, the “overpaid” tag will stick with him. And again, him being overpaid will have hindered the Bears from looking for outside help.

Even if they wanted to look outside for help, there was no one on the market better than Harris ... if a healthier Harris means a more productive Harris. The top DTs were quickly franchised by their old teams and after that, the list of available tackles were of little interest to me.

Here's a list of the top free agent defensive tackles.

Vince Wilfork, franchised by the Patriots
Aubrayo Franklin, franchised by the 49ers
Ryan Pickett, franchised by the Packers
Dwan Edwards, signed by the Bills; four years, $18 million
Jason Ferguson, re-signed by the Dolphins; one year, $1.65 million

Execution: It’s pretty easy to do nothing

The Bears executed the sit-and-hope plan perfectly. The Bears took care of Harris in mini camp, hoping to preserve his health even more; and didn’t make the slightest move in free agency at this position. The only additions are two cheap, undrafted free agents.

Whether the execution works or not depends on Harris. Was Harris ineffective the last two seasons because he needed to undergo surgery before the season? Or is the fact that he’s had all of these injuries, which required surgery, done enough damage?

Bears take Harvey Unga

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 09:43:37 GMT

The Bears selected BYU running back Harvey Unga in the seventh-round of the NFL Supplemental Draft, foregoing their seventh-round pick in the next real NFL Draft.

Unga is the all-time leading rusher at BYU. And before the draft, speculators had Unga being taken in the third- or fourth-round. Whatever round a player is selected in, the team must give up their pick in that round the following year.

He lasted until the seventh, and the Bears picked him up with the 12th pick in the round. The 6-feet-0 3/4, 244 lb. back ran 4.65 at his workout for NFL teams. His size and lack of speed had some teams considering him as a fullback, but from what I gathered from the Bears' beat reporters, he'll compete for a spot on the Bears roster as a tailback.

ESPN's Len Pasquerelli wrote about the lack of successful players taken in the supplemental draft, but Unga, who planned on returning to school for his senior season, entered the draft under unusual circumstances.

Unga was dismissed from BYU in April for an unspecified violation of university regulations. Allegedly that unspecified violation was pre-marital sex with his basketball player girlfriend, who also withdrew from school around the same time. But I guess it could have been anything -- there's a lot of things on BYU's honor code.

Whether it's pre-marital sex , or he got caught cutting the sleeves off his t-shirt, hopefully he's better than Garrett Wolfe.

Defensive End: Is this the best the Bears could do?

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 02:52:15 GMT

There are a thousand different books, magazines, websites and TV shows trying to predict what’s going to happen this season. Some use formulas that project how many games a team is going to win; some say a team is looking confident and the writer just thinks they’re going to win. Whether they use objective statistics or old-timey anecdotes, it’s still only a prediction.

With training camp around the corner, there are issues that aren’t predictions any more. For the most part, rosters are set. So, is this the best the Bears could?

Not, “Do the Bears have the best defensive ends in the league?” But, considering the limitations of one off-season, is there another move they should have made. Because every season it happens: A particular player struggles and someone writes or asks, “Why didn’t they sign so-and-so? So-and-so was a free agent; so-and-so definitely would have signed here, if only the Bears were smart enough to go after him.”

It’s tiresome to have the same hindsight conversations. So, let’s do it now, before it’s hindsight.

Bears Brain Trust will go over each position and see how the Bears did. We’ll look at how the Bears finished in 2009, what they tried to do during the offseason, and how well they executed -- and if they should have done anything differently.

_____

Still here:
Mark Anderson, had two sacks and 22 tackles in 16 games last season
Henry Melton, did not play

Out:
Gaines Adams, died of cardiac arrest
Alex Brown, released and signed with Saints
Adewale Ogunleye, not re-signed and still unsigned

In:
Julius Peppers, signed six-year deal worth $91 million ($42 million guaranteed)
Israel Idonije, Lovie Smith says he’d like to lock Idonije in more at DE than DT
Corey Wootton, drafted in the fourth round
Barry Turner, undrafted free agent

If Alex Brown were still on the roster, it would be impossible to complain about the Bears' decisions this off-season. Not that I’m complaining; it’s just after adding the best free agent available at any position (Julius Peppers), it’s difficult to find other things to be upset about.

Not that the talent -- top to bottom -- is the best in the league -- (it’s definitely not). But considering the situation, the Bears put together a unit with enough talent at the top to possibly be competent enough to keep Rod Marinelli from sending five and six pass-rushers, and taking the Bears out of the Cover 2.

2009 review: Help!

As a whole, the Bears’ defensive line was a huge problem; it’d be fair to blame either the inside or outside of the D-line. Both are partly to blame for the Bears having to send 6+ people at the quarterback more than all but two teams in the NFL, just to generate some kind of pressure. But, whether you want to blame the interior or the exterior, the Bears could have used an upgrade at defensive end.

Alex Brown graded well at ProFootballFocus.com; Adewale Ogunleye did not. At ProFootballFocus.com, Ogunleye was rated as a below average defensive end, was especially awful against the run, and his 6.5 sacks did little to make up for his poor run support.

Considering the 2009 cap hit for Ogunleye and Brown, combined, was over $10 million and 12-percent of the team’s total salary, the Bears were certainly not getting their money’s worth.

2010 offseason plan: Hurry, throw money at it

The Bears’ desperately needed to upgrade their pass rush; they have a lot of money already invested at defensive tackle (Tommie Harris, mainly); so, the Bears threw money at the defensive end spot.

Harris’ 2009 cap hit was just over $9 million. Harris’ actual value was nowhere close to that, and actually, according to ProFootballFocus.com, he was one of the worst defensive tackles or nose tackles in the game.

Yet, as bad as Harris was the hope going into this season is that he’s healthy for the first time. A healthy (good) Harris would be the best thing for the Bears’ pass rush; if he’s not good, even if he's healthy, the Bears already have so much money invested in the position. With this much invested, it made more sense to take the money and draft picks at defensive end.

(Yes, I know it's an uncapped year; still, there's a budget. You're not going to spend $30 or $40 million on one position.)

Because unlike the dream scenario -- Harris is able to stay healthy and bounce back as a top defensive tackle -- there was no hope of a dramatic turnaround at end. With aging veterans in Ogunleye and Brown, no draft picks until the third round, and especially after Gaines Adams' death in the offseason, the Bears’ only choice was to go the free agency route at defensive end.

Execution: Yeah, he'll work

To throw money at the pass rush problem, means the Bears threw money at Julius Peppers. Peppers was the best free agent available, forget position; in that regard, the Bears succeeded.

Here were/are the five of the best available defensive ends, besides Peppers:

Richard Seymour; franchised by Raiders; $12.4 million
Aaron Kampman; signed by Jaguars; four years, $26 million with $11 million guaranteed
Paul Spicer, unsigned
Derrick Burgess; re-signed by Patriots; one year, $1.5 million
Leonard Little, unsigned

Peppers’ six-year, $91 million contract (with $42 million guaranteed) is considerably larger than all of those deals -- combined. At the same time, is there anyone listed above who could possibly improve an entire unit by himself? No.

I don’t know if Peppers can do it, but in an uncapped year with the position the Bears’ coaches and management are in, it’s worth a shot, right?

What about the rest of the NFC North?

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 01:03:36 GMT

Yesterday, I noted that the Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 doesn’t have as many pessimistic feelings about the Bears as I do.

In 60% of my Bears thoughts, I have the offense struggling to pick up Mike Martz’s system; Tommie Harris unhealthy and Julius Peppers unable to pick up enough of the slack to make a difference; and people criticizing Jay Cutler because they don’t like his body language after he throws interceptions.

Football Outsiders’ formulas expect more, though. The formulas and objective projections have the Bears with about 9 wins and contending for the playoffs and/or the Super Bowl 60% of the time.

Well, if they’re contending for the playoffs with 9 wins, what about the rest of the NFC North. Where do they sit, and how do they keep the Bears in contention. Here’s the projections for the other three teams.

On top of the division: the Green Bay Packers

2010 Mean Projections: 9.4 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 1%
Loserville (4-6): 8%
Mediocrity (7-8): 23%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 39%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 30%

Just behind the Bears: the Minnesota Vikings

2010 Mean Projections: 8.6 wins (and, yes, this includes Brett Favre)
On the Clock (0-3): 2%
Loserville (4-6): 13%
Mediocrity (7-8): 31%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 34%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 19%

Worst in the NFC North; worst in the NFL by 1.4 games: the Detroit Lions

2010 Mean Projections: 3.1 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 67%
Loserville (4-6): 29%
Mediocrity (7-8): 3%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 1%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 0%

Football Outsiders: So you're saying there's a chance

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 12:44:06 GMT

I don't think anything compares to when Baseball Prospectus' yearly book comes out, but this is as close as it gets in football. Last week, Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 was released.

If you've never read it before, every year is a great year to start. And for $12, the PDF version of it is a great deal.

The 2010 edition, like most everyone else, has a lot of questions about the Bears; still, 60% of the time it projects a favorable outcome to the pessimistic ideas I have in my own head.

And unlike most NFL preview books and magazines, it doesn't just pull the win total out of thin air. For each team, Football Outsiders runs three equations to forecast the 2010 DVOA for offense, defense and special teams. Then, the 2010 season is simulated 10,000 times. This is how the Bears were projected to finish:

2010 Mean Projection: 9.0 wins
On the Clock (0-3): 2%
Loserville (4-6): 11%
Mediocrity (7-8): 28%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 37%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 23%

I'll refer to this book about a thousand times before the season starts, and probably a few times after that. Until then, take this from Football Outsiders Almanac 2010: It's not crazy to think the Bears will be good.

Logjam to prevent Bears from getting Vincent Jackson?

Thu, 1 Jul 2010 12:10:55 GMT

ESPN's Adam Schefter calls any deal a long shot, but the Bears are among three teams that have "debated making a run" at San Diego Chargers wideout Vincent Jackson.

Jacison is a restricted free agent, and in the midst of a long holdout. He's also only 27 years old, currently in his prime and his prime to this point has been pretty good. Over the last two seasons, Jackson has gone over 1,000 yards, led the league in yards per reception last season, and beyond the stats, he has become a reliable go-to-guy for Philip Rivers.

Of the traits listed above, the Bears have exactly zero wide receivers who can say they possess, well, any of those things.

So, the Bears should go get him. It seems obvious, but since Jackson is young and talented, the Chagers want a lot in return. A good measuring stick would probably be something along the lines of the deal for Brandon Marshall in the offseason; if you don't remember, that's two second-round picks.

Because of the price and because I have no idea what "debated making a run" really says about the Bears' interest, I'm not holding my breath. Yet, this team has surprised us before, and everyone besides the ownership desperately needs this season to save their jobs. In other words, two second-round draft picks may not mean as much to people who may lose their job.

Whether the Bears enter serious discussions with the Chargers or not, I just hope the organization don't feel the same way about the Bears' "apparent logjam at receiver" as some.

Cutler gets hurt; everybody gets fired

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 11:59:11 GMT

With OTAs finished, the most alarming thing about the Bears is that they seem satisfied with their No. 2 quarterback. I doubt the satisfaction is genuine, since I’m sure they would have liked to have signed Marc Bulger before he went to Baltimore. However, at this point, the Bears are at least saying through gritted teeth that Caleb Hanie is great and that everything is going to be OK. Per ESPNChicago.com’s Jeff Dickerson:

“The Bears appear content to open training camp with Caleb Hanie as the No. 2 quarterback after the former undrafted free agent finished up the offseason program on a high note, according to multiple team sources.”

Last season, Hanie served as Cutler’s primary backup; however, no one’s job was on the line.

Dan LeFevour isn’t the answer, either. Unless the question is: How did a 7-9 team with a long list of holes to fill attempt to imitate a Super Bowl champion looking for potential?

Good luck, Cutler. I hope the seven-steps drops prominent in Mike Martz’s offense aren’t the end of you. And good luck, O-Line. Everyone in the front office and on the coaching staff is pulling for you.

"Depth" changing things for Bears safeties

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 01:39:10 GMT

Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune is very excited about the upcoming Bears season. While some Bears fans are cautiously optimistic, Pompei is all in. The Bears offense will be great; the Bears defense will be much improved; the brain trust era is just beginning.

His optimism continued in today’s column as he point out the Bears’ depth at various positions, specifically, linebacker, safety, running back, wide receiver, tight end and left guard.

He says the Bears have so many good players that they don’t know what to do with them. I say don't confuse equally average players with depth.

Maybe Pompei was too excited about the Lance Louis/Josh Beekman/Johan Asiata competition at left guard, because I have a question about the way Pompei listed the safeties.

“Other than Harris, not much separates three players — Craig Steltz, Danieal Manning and Major Wright. And it's too early to write off Al Afalava.”

I have no problem with Chris Harris being the No. 1 safety going into camp -- at either strong or free safety. But Craig Steltz? Steltz is in the group of three, all of whom are ahead of Al Afalava.

Updates from OTAs have been sparse, so maybe there’s something I’m missing from the first two OTA sessions. It’s just hard to imagine a scenario where Steltz is higher on the depth chart than Afalava.

Who's gonna play guard?

Thu, 3 Jun 2010 01:24:32 GMT

The story of the Bears' first day of organized team activities is probably how installing the offense is going. It's the biggest change from last season and, surely, installing the offense is their primary goal of these 14 OTAs.

Still, there are other things the Bears would like to have figured out before minicamp. However, one answer that doesn't appear likely to come anytime soon is who the starting guards will be.

I assume Roberto Garza is one, and Olin Kreutz's injury is forcing another likely candidate (Josh Beekman) to take snaps at center, so the competition is slightly altered. But unlike some of the teams' other positions, Mike Tice seems open to anyone at this point.

From Jeff Dickerson's Bears blog at ESPN Chicago:

"Mike Tice continues to rotate guards -- Kevin Shaffer, Roberto Garza, Lance Louis and Johan Asiata all saw time with the first team."

On the bright side, Frank Omiyale, who was a complete disaster inside last season, doesn't appear to be in the running. Like Omiyale last season, Shaffer looks like he's the one that will have to adjust to an inside position if he wants playing time.

Martz and the not-so-secret-playbook -- Part 1

Wed, 2 Jun 2010 11:30:46 GMT

For some time, it's been known that a copy of Mike Martz's Rams playbooks had found its way to the Internet. Not that this is reason for alarm or to worry that any magical secrets are making their way around the NFL. It's just nice that common folk have one variation of an NFL playbook to scroll through, try to comprehend and use to better understand how an NFL offense works.

It's actually kind of cool. Here's a link, if you want to check it out yourself.

This specific playbook is broken down into a lot of sections and subsections. Considering the playbook is made up of 410 pages, this makes sense. Some are overwhelming and back up former players who say Martz's system is complicated; other sections contain such simple concepts that I would feel like including them in a fifth graders playbook would be talking down to them. For example, the phrase "Eyes on QB!" is all over the place; at the NFL, one would think they know this already.

This playbook also goes hand in hand with a lot of what was said about about Martz and his offense when he was hired-- he's controlling, hard to please, his offense is complicated, etc. But beyond the anecdotes, I think Bears fans can learn a lot from these 410 pages.

Although, there's only so much context that can be brought to this particular playbook. Other NFL playbooks are floating around the Internet; I've read some to compare, but I haven't seem them all, of course. Still, compared to the other things Bears fans know about Martz, a lot can be learned from this book about his concepts and ideas.

Here's the first section.

General Offense

The first nine pages of the book are titled "General Offense" and they don't go into specific positions. It just tells people where to stand in the huddle; how his teams utilize snap counts and cadences; what are the holes along the offensive line called; how should backs and linemen align on the ball; audibles; and what each type of personnel group is called.

It's all basic stuff and for the most part these first nine pages won't affect how we as Bears fans watch the game -- we're not on the field to grade the huddle or hear the cadence.

But what I gathered from this part of the book is how detail-oriented Martz is about every aspect of the offense. When I said that some things in the playbook come off as condescending, I was mainly referring to this first section.

Everything from how players should align on the field, to how they stand in the huddle is included. And no details are spared. This describes how to lineup in the huddle: "Front 5 -- Center and guards back parallel to L.O.S. Tackles turned in at approximate 45-degree angle! Good squared up position -- eyes on QB!"

(Oh, yeah, the playbook contains a lot of exclamation points. Kurt Warner said Martz yelling at him was frustrating early on; and Martz does his best to yell at you, even in writing.)

Looking at the QB seems like common knowledge to an NFL player to me. It's almost insulting to think he needs to remind them of this on every other page.

Overall, though, it's easy to see where Warner and others are coming from -- Martz wants his players to know what their supposed to be doing from the beginning of the play to the end. Controlling, as many have called Martz, seems like a fair description.

Until the season starts, I'll continue breaking down the 2000 Rams Playbook section-by-section. Just trying to gather anything and everything I can about the Bears' new offensive coordinator.

Bears couldn't break tackles last season

Tue, 1 Jun 2010 11:30:50 GMT

Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and all the baseball stat sites can find the raw data they need relatively easily. The formulas they put them in -- not as easy. Still, the data is there.

Football Outsiders, on the other hand, has to do some extra work to gather a lot of the raw statistics they use on their site and in their annual book. A lot of this work is done by game charters who track things during the game. At the end of the season, all of this information is calculated and we learn a few things about each team we may not have known before; though, sometimes we had a pretty good idea.

What FO’s game charters told us about last season is that the Bears didn’t break any tackles. This is just stats confirming what was already suspected; if you consider the way people felt about two of the Bears most utilized players -- Greg Olsen and Matt Forte -- this is far from surprising.

Based on the numbers, the Bears had a play with at least one broken tackle only 3.5% of the time. Only the Packers’ had a smaller percentage of plays with a broken tackle.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, on defense the Bears were middle of the road (16th in the NFL) in terms of making tackles. Not that this is any indication of success: the No. 1 team in not allowing broken tackles was the St. Louis Rams, an otherwise terrible defense.

Minicamp experiment at left corrner?

Wed, 26 May 2010 11:36:56 GMT

Normally, on a defensive team that stresses zone coverage -- like the Bears’ Cover-2 -- the right cornerback position is designated for the weaker of the two corners. As Brad Biggs described in the Tribune and at the NationalFootballPost.com, right-handed quarterbacks throw to the left side of the field more often where, obviously, the left corner hangs out.

And there are more right-handed quarterbacks, so why not have the better one on the left.

This may or may not be important for the Bears' 2010 season, because in last weekend’s minicamp, Charles Tillman was moved to the right side. Zack Bowman taking his place on the left. Since I don’t know anyone who was enthralled by the Gale Sayers-Brian Urlacher conversation through the media, this may have been the most intriguing piece of information out of minicamp.

Take of this what you will.

It’s only minicamp, so a few questions still remain: Are the Bears making this switch because Tillman has digressed to become the weaker of the Bears' two starting corners? Or has Bowman improved to become better? Maybe this was just an experimental, minicamp tryout that doesn’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

Both involved parties seemed to believe this was a permanent switch; Tillman was less confident that the move is set in stone, but that should be expected.

If the move is indeed permanent, I think it says more about the Bears’ outlook on Tillman than Bowman. Did Bowman do anything last season to undoubtedly deserve the more prestigious of the corner jobs?

Bowman led the team in interceptions in 2009, but he had as many issues with top-notch wide receivers as anyone else. Few games come to mind where Bowman stood out -- at least stood out enough to warrant switching positions with someone who has made 91 of his 94 starts on the left side -- more than Tillman.

As for Tillman, he’s undergone two shoulder surgeries, two back surgeries, and he missed the season finale last season after he suffered four broken ribs and a punctured lung. Still, there’s nothing that suggests the Bears can’t rely on him. Tillman has only missed five games in four seasons; considering the aforementioned injuries, that’s pretty good.

However, at the end of May, with the Bears, or anyone else, yet to hold a practice with pads on, the Bears appear to favor Bowman as the better corner. Unless, they changed an aspect of their defensive philosophy. Although, I doubt that very much.

Assuming the move is permanent, how you feel about it depends on how you feel about Bowman. You think Bowman is good enough to be a top corner? You’re probably confident with him taking the starting spot on the left side.

Suspect of Bowman? You want to know if the injuries have taken there toll on Tillman, because maybe the Bears don’t even have one corner worthy of starting at the more vulnerable left side.

Bears sign Iwuh; cut Brock

Tue, 25 May 2010 01:12:22 GMT

The Bears officially announced the signing of linebacker Brian Iwuh on Monday, as well as the release of tight end Kevin Brock.

Since players are rarely, if ever, listed solely as special teams contributors, the Bears and others may insist that Iwuh can serve as a reserve linebacker. However, there's no history of Iwuh doing that; still, he's not bad on any of the four phases of special teams.

Scouts Inc. (ESPN Insiders only) says he has adequate size and above-average speed; he's more of a straight-line runner than someone with a lot of quickness and ability to change direction; and, he's inconsistent in his ability to shed blocks.

Simply, he's well-suited to play special teams; don't expect a lot more than that, though.

Cutler plans to get playbook tips from Warner

Mon, 10 May 2010 02:02:15 GMT

I know every time the Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times or whoever writes something about Jay Cutler there's a thousand comments, and a debate ensues. Usually, the debate has nothing to do with the story, and it almost always touches on Cutler's "jerk face."

On Friday, the Tribune's Vaughn McClure wrote that Cutler plans to talk with Kurt Warner and pick his brain regarding Mike Martz's offense. Warner declined to be interviewed, but said he would be perfectly willing to speak to Cutler about what he knows.

Point is: This is something Cutler plans to do that can't hurt, could help. Really, it's not that big a deal. But for those who think the Bears quarterback doesn't care, this may give credence to the contrary.

Instead, the misspelled, naming calling hilarity ensued on the comments posted below McClure's small story. Some highlights:

I'm assuming most of the idiot Cutler lovers posting on here are not Bear fans. You guys are special kind of loser trolls to be that stupid on a Chicago site.
As long a Martz keeps his playbook under 6 pages and there are plenty of pictures, Cutler will be fine.
Cutler even looks like an idiot.
How bout hiring Curt Warner as the Bears QB coach ?
Why not hire Warner as QB coach and if Cutler gets hurt sign Warner to a 1 year deal to replace him.. Makes sense to me!!!

Now, let the Cutler debate -- what that debate is, I don't know. -- continue here.

Kevin Payne is going to St. Louis

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 04:04:08 GMT

Kevin Payne was expendable before the Bears traded for Chris Harris. So about 24 hours after bring Harris back, the Bears traded Payne to the Rams for an undisclosed draft pick.

What was disclosed was that the pick is for the 2011 draft; that's nice to know. And if you're a big Payne fan, the Rams depth chart at strong safety looks like the following: James Butler, David Roach, and Anthony Smith.

Know what we're getting with Harris

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 01:50:38 GMT

I feel better about the Bears today, Wednesday, than I did this time on Tuesday. Chris Harris isn't perfect (far from it), but at least I know what he does. Is Major Wright and Al Afalava half the secondary you want next season? How much would you expect from those two, if they started on Week 1?

My answers: No and no idea. Wright was the 75th overall pick in the draft; expectations have to be adjusted accordingly. And since Afalava (a sixth-round pick) played better than a sixth-rounder, some Bears fans got excited about his potential. However, starting the season with those two would make me, just a simple Bears fan, nervous; and I can only imagine how it would feel to rest my job on their ability to cover the deep middle. Jerry Angelo is doing a lot of hiring and firing in the the scouting department underneath him; it would all be for naught, if the Bears -- and the secondary is a big part of that -- doesn't play better.

With Harris, we know what we're getting. And he's probably the Bears' best safety, right now. It's encouraging that basically everone has the same assessment of Harris. Despite some flaws, there shouldn't be any surprises.

Even back in the good ol' days of 2005, Harris has been consistent. In 2005, the Bears were headed to the playoffs and Harris was a rookie. Football Outsiders broke down the Bears defense, and they had a lot of good things to say about him. They complimented his way to play near the line of scrimmage and get off blocks.

FO also said the best thing about Harris' role in the pass defense is that you don't notice him; however, because he lacks ideal speed, they were concerned with his skills against the deep ball.
FO's Michael David Smith wrote: "Harris especially shines in the red zone, where he can concentrate on what's in front of him and not worry about being beaten deep."

Years later, Harris is the same guy (ESPN Insiders only). Harris is still a big hitter, a smart player who knows where to be, but someone who isn't the quickest or the fastest.

Compared to Danieal Manning, and some of the high-end athletes that can't figure out Cover-2 or deep middle, I'll take someone being in the right place for a change. Even if he's not there as quickly as others.

Plus, at least, I know what to expect.

YouTubing Bears draft picks

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 01:34:08 GMT

More on the Bears' five draft picks later, but here's some highlights from a few of their top picks.

Major Wright, third round, safety, Florida
There are more on YouTube, but this was a big hit in the 2009 National Championship Game. It's a good sign that Thom Brennaman, in calling the play, mentions that there's no one within ten yards of the receiver when the ball is thrown.

Corey Wootton, fourth round, defensive end, Northwestern
Too bad his highlight reel for the 2010 draft is taking from the 2008 season.

Joshua Moore, fifth round, cornerback, Kansas State
Based on this video, there's quite a sentimental bond between Moore and Kansas State -- or, at least KSUPoetWarrior.

Dan LeFevour, sixth round, quarterback, Central Michigan
There are a lot of LeFevour highlight tapes; none of them are more impressive than anything Jay Cutler does. This is the kind of pick a team who has everything makes.

J'Marcus Webb, seventh round, offensive tackle, West Texas A&M
Not surprisingly, there's not a whole lot of public film on Webb. However, there is a creepy video, with no sound, of him walking on the sideline, probably taken with a camera phone.

13 teams the Bears will defeat (but probably not)

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 12:55:44 GMT

The NFL schedule was released and if you read this in time you can rush to ESPN2 for two hours of intense, mind-bending schedule release coverage. Everyone will tell you it's impossible to predict how a team will fare against their newly released schedule, then predict anyways.

The power of the NFL never ceases to amaze me.

Since the NFL's schedule was released that includes the Bears. Details -- like dates, times and such -- can be found at chicagobears.com, or by clicking here.

Week 1 - Detroit
Week 2 - at Dallas
Week 3 - Green Bay (Monday Night Football)
Week 4 - at New York Giants (Sunday Night Football at the new Meadowlands Stadium)
Week 5 - at Carolina
Week 6 - Seattle
Week 7 - Washington
Week 8 - BYE
Week 9 - at Buffalo (Toronto)
Week 10 - Minnesota
Week 11 - at Miami (Thursday Night Football)
Week 12 - Philadelphia
Week 13 - at Detroit
Week 14 - New England
Week 15 - at Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
Week 16 - New York Jets
Week 17 - at Green Bay

Let the premature and ridiculous prognostications begin.